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The Great Bear Market Of 2018

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, The Bear Market Of 2018 Let’s start with where we left off last weekend: “Currently, we do not know whether the current corrective action is JUST a normal, healthy correction, or the beginning of something bigger. BUT – this is the expected correction we have been discussing over the last several weeks. It is also something we had planned for by reducing overweight positions and adding a short-hedge to portfolios.  With the markets on a short-term sell signal (noted by black vertical dashed lines in the chart above,) the current correctional process is underway. But, with the market now oversold on a VERY short-term basis a counter-trend rally over the next week, or two, should be expected.” Well, we did indeed get a very nice rally last week with the market breaking above the 50-dma on Thursday. While the immediate consensus is the “bear market of 2018” is now over, there are several important points about the chart above that should be considered. Despite the correction, the market did hold support at the 200-dma The bullish trend line, which goes back to the beginning of 2016, has also not been violated. However, the upper red “trendline” may provide some overhead resistance temporarily and is worth watching closely.  While the market did get oversold on a short-term basis, which suggested a bounce was likely, the longer-term overbought condition, and subsequent “sell signal”...

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NYSE’s Most Iconic Stockbroker Admits He’s “Never Owned A Share Of Stock In My Life”

If you have a pulse and own a stock, The Washington Post points out, you probably have seen Peter Tuchman’s face. But a household name he ain’t. The 60-year-old trader is perhaps the most iconic face of The New York Stock Exchange – and the US stock-markets – as the trader’s Einstein-y look can be relied upon as a real-time indicator of sentiment – be it anguish, anticipation, desperation, or triumph. Tuchman is without doubt the most photographed person at The NYSE. “The floor of NYSE is the greatest office on Earth. It has energy, people. These are hallowed floors. It’s 120 years old, and every president, every head of state, celebrities have walked this floor. What goes on on this floor will affect world finance on a daily basis. And I’m in the middle of it. I love that. And once my face became what it’s become, I love that part of it, too.” What does Tuchman do? “I am the eyes and ears and the conduit for trading and point of sale of buying and selling stocks for customers. It’s very simple. If Grandma in Kentucky wants to buy 100 shares of XYZ company, she calls a broker at Charlie Schwab, Merrill Lynch or JPMorgan and says, “I want to buy 100 shares of XYZ.” The broker generates the order. It gets sent to a machine on...

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Why One Bank Is Worried That Credit ETFs Will Blow Up Next

Two weeks after the unprecedented, record Feb. 5 surge in the VIX, the historic move is rapidly fading into memory as “the dip gets bought” again: to those who correctly predicted it, like Fasanara Capital  and Eric Peters,  and those who profited from it, like Ibex Investors  and Peter Thiel, congratulations. Now the question is which product, read ETF, will generate returns similar to the 94% bonanza reaped by those who were short the XIV ahead of its terminal implosion (the XIV will cease trading after Feb 20, with holders receiving a cash payment of its residual value, which is virtually nothing). To be sure, numerous candidates have been proposed over the past two weeks, with two names frequently cited – certainly by this site among others – include the two big junk ETFs, HYG and JNK, whose existence is only assured as long as the structure and liquidity of the underlying cash junk bond market isn’t seriously tested, as the ETFs would spontaneously implode once the market of underlying junk bonds freezes up, something which Howard Marks has repeatedly warned about. So when do HYG and JNK blow up — zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 9, 2018 What is strange – as we discussed on several occasions  over the past 2 weeks – is that credit fared relatively well in the washout from the VIXplosion, widening by markedly less than...

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Hezbollah Leader Threatens “We Will Open Fire” On Disputed Israeli Offshore Oil & Gas Operations

During a televised address in Beirut on Friday Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah once again warned Israel to back off its claims over disputed oil and gas field just off the southern Lebanese coast, threatening that Hezbollah could “disable [Israel’s offshore oil installations] within hours.” “If you prevent us, we prevent you; if you open fire at us, we will open fire,” Nasrallah threatened.  The dispute over the eastern Mediterranean gas field goes back to January 2017, but blew up starting in late January of this year as it has been put up for tender by Lebanon and is expected to be developed by an international consortium of energy companies. However, as we reported at the time Israel has aggressively pushed for major sectors of the field to be internationally recognized as lying within its rightful territorial waters, going so far as to warn “respectable” companies from participating in the tender, which would be a “major mistake”. Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said in late January, “They [Lebanon] are announcing a tender on the gas field, including Block 9, which is ours by any definition,” and Lebanese actions “very, very challenging and provocative conduct here.” Israel bolsters maritime defense in offshore oil and gas zone. Source: Reuters “Lebanese officials previously announced plans to begin exploratory drilling in 2019. Israel is already producing gas at the Tamar field and expects...

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Swan Song Of The Central Bankers, Part 5: The Flat-Line Does Not Spell Recovery

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, The punk January industrial production (IP) report brought another reminder that the Fed has stimulated nothing at all on the output/employment prong of its dual mandate. Indeed, as they celebrate a purported “mission accomplished” full employment recovery and confidently prepare to plow forward with an epochal pivot to QT (quantitative tightening), our Keynesian central bankers have remained absolutely mum on this stunning fact: To wit, there has been no recovery at all in US industrial production, and that’s as in nichts, nada and nugatory. In fact, January 2018 output in the manufacturing sector was still 2.2% below its December 2007 level, and total industrial production has barely crept forward at a 0.19% annual rate. And if you don’t think that is close enough to zero for government work, just recall what a real historical recovery looks like on the IP front. During the December 2000 to December 2007 cycle, for example, total IP grew at 1.4% per annum and manufacturing output rose by 1.9% per annum on a peak-to-peak basis. Prior to that during the 1990-2000 cycle, the figures were 4.0% and 4.6% per annum, respectively. And if you want to dial way back in time to the Reagan-Bush cycle from July 1981 to July 1990, the peak-to-peak growth trend for total industrial production was 2.3% per annum and 2.8% for manufacturing output. And, by your way, that cycle also included a deep recession in 1982 that was only slightly less severe than the...

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Washington Free Beacon

Washington Free BeaconSanders Gets Testy When Chuck Todd Brings Up His Voting Record on GunsCBS Host to Podesta: Why Did the Russians Know to Focus on Michigan and Wisconsin When Clinton Didn’t?Schiff: Obama Administration Bears Some Responsibility for Russian Meddling After Weak Response to Sony HackTrump: ‘They Are Laughing Their A**es Off in Moscow’ at Discord Sown by Russia InvestigationWorkers’ Union Withdrawal Bankrupts CompanyGeorge Soros’s Son Donated $650,000 to Democratic Committees and Campaigns Last YearMarines Didn’t Reach Out to Innocent Special Operators Until Story Went PublicBipartisan Group of Supporters Defend Trump’s Nominee for Key U.N. Refugee PostClarence Thomas: I Am ‘Worn Down’ From Victimhood CultureTrump Visits Florida Hospital to Pay Respects After School Shooting http://freebeacon.com Sun, 18 Feb 2018 16:53:16 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.2 http://freebeacon.com/issues/sanders-gets-testy-chuck-todd-brings-voting-record-guns/ http://freebeacon.com/issues/sanders-gets-testy-chuck-todd-brings-voting-record-guns/#respond Sun, 18 Feb 2018 16:52:25 +0000 http://freebeacon.com/?p=948790 The post Sanders Gets Testy When Chuck Todd Brings Up His Voting Record on Guns appeared first on Washington Free Beacon. ]]> Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) became testy with “Meet the Press” host Chuck Todd on Sunday when his own voting record on guns was brought up. Todd asked Sanders about his past voting record where he has not always voted for gun control and comments of his from 2013 where he said gun control wouldn’t necessarily prevent shootings. “If you passed the strongest gun control legislation tomorrow, I don’t think it will have...

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Netanyahu Slams “Outrageous” Holocaust Remarks By Polish Prime Minister

In the latest escalation of the diplomatic scandal between Poland and Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lashed out on Saturday out “outrageous” remarks by his new Polish counterpart Mateusz Morawiecki (in office since December), who said the Holocaust had involved “Jewish perpetrators” as well as Polish, The Local reported. The Israeli leader condemned “an inability to understand history and a lack of sensitivity to the tragedy of our people” adding that “the Polish Prime Minister’s remarks here in Munich are outrageous,” and that he intended to speak to Morawiecki “forthwith” about the matter. Morawiecki’s claim about the Holocaust’s perpetrators came amid an unprecedented diplomatic row with Israel sparked by a controversial law passed by Poland’s senate this month. The law – which was approved overwhelmingly by the Polish Senate, with 57 voting in favour, 23 against and two abstaining – sets fines or a maximum three-year jail term for anyone ascribing “responsibility or co-responsibility to the Polish nation or state for crimes committed by the German Third Reich.” Polish President Andrzej Duda defended the bill earlier in February claiming that it was much needed to defend the reputation of the country. “Taking the need to protect Poland’s and the Polish people’s good name into account … I made the decision to sign this amendment to the bill into law”, Duda was quoted saying by Russia’s Tass news agency. Appearing...

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How Did America Go Bankrupt? Slowly, At First, Then All At Once!!!

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog, The US federal debt has again been on the move, as of mid-week up to a fresh record of $20.7 trillion.  But, really, without some sort of reference point, what does that mean? Typically, the metrics of total debt or federal debt divided by GDP (Gross Domestic Product or the total value of goods produced and services provided in the US annually) are used (chart below).  Still, that’s a bit ethereal to most folks. So, I thought I’d make this simpler.  The chart below shows federal debt (red line) versus total full time employees (blue line) since 1970.  Clearly, debt has surged since 2000 and particularly since 2008 versus decelerating net full time jobs growth.  The number of full time employees is economically critical as, generally speaking, only these jobs offer the means to be a home buyer or build savings and wealth in a consumer driven economy.  Part time employment generally offers only subsistence level earnings. But if we look at the change over those periods highlighted in the chart above, we get a clear picture (chart below).  Full time jobs are being added at a rapidly declining rate while federal debt is surging in the absence of the growth of full time employees. And if we look at the federal debt added per full time job added (chart below)…broken arrow…broken arrow!!!  That is $1.92 million dollars...

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Florida School Shooter To Romantic Rival: “Iam Going To Fu*king Kill You”

Three students who knew the Florida high school shooting suspect reported him to school administrators for threats and erratic behavior after an ex-girlfriend broke up with him and began seeing another teenager, reports BuzzFeed News.  Nikolas Cruz, charged with the premeditated murder of 17 students at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, had been suspended in 2017 for “disciplinary reasons.” While some reports say he was expelled for getting into a fight with his ex’s new boyfriend, others say he was kicked out for carrying a knife to school.  The students who spoke to BuzzFeed News — Dana Craig, 16; her boyfriend, Matthew Rosario, 16; and Enea Sabadini, 17 — said that such a fight happened, and that it was the culmination of a jealous and angry period for Cruz because Enea began dating Cruz’s ex-girlfriend. Three other friends who asked BuzzFeed News not to use their names, for privacy reasons, confirmed their accounts. “Im going to watch ypu bleed,” read an Instagram message sent under Cruz’s name to Enea in 2017, when students said Cruz was no longer at the school. “iam going to shoot you dead.” Another message said Enea “stole my ex.” –BuzzFeed Enea Sabadini dated Cruz’s Ex (Remy Smidt/BuzzFeed News) In addition to the FBI having received several tips over Cruz’s threats of violence which they completely botchedthanks to the way previous administration(s) designed the tip-line, a simple look...

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Sanders Gets Testy When Chuck Todd Brings Up His Voting Record on Guns

Share Tweet Email [embedded content] BY: Jack Heretik Follow @JackHeretikFebruary 18, 2018 11:52 am Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) became testy with “Meet the Press” host Chuck Todd on Sunday when his own voting record on guns was brought up. Todd asked Sanders about his past voting record where he has not always voted for gun control and comments of his from 2013 where he said gun control wouldn’t necessarily prevent shootings. “If you passed the strongest gun control legislation tomorrow, I don’t think it will have a profound effect on the tragedies we have seen,” Sanders said in 2013. Todd first mentioned Sanders’s prior comments and before Todd could finish his question, Sanders interrupted him to boast of his poor voting record grade from the NRA. “Senator, you ended up voting for some of those reforms, gun control measures that you weren’t 100 percent sure would solve all the problems,” Todd said. “Where are you today? Do you think now—” “Hey, Chuck, Chuck, let’s be very clear!” Sanders said. “Hey, Chuck, let’s be very clear. I have a D-minus voting record from the NRA. I lost an election probably for Congress here in Vermont back in 1988, because I believed that we should not be selling or distributing assault weapons in this country. I am on record and have been for a very long time in saying we have got...

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