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Mediocre 7Y Auction Tails As Yield Tumbles To 6 Month Low

Mediocre 7Y Auction Tails As Yield Tumbles To 6 Month Low Following two tailing coupon auctions, which saw both the 2Y and 5Y note sales tail the When Issued as a result of this week’s sharp drop in yields across the curve, today was no exception and moments ago the Treasury concluded the week’s accelerated bond issuance calendar when it sold $31BN in 7 Year notes at the lowest yield in six months. Stopping at a high yield of 1.570%, the lowest since the 1.489% printed in August and sharply lower from December’s 1.844%,  the 7Y auction tailed the 1.566% When Issued by 0.4bps, the second consecutive tail. The Bid to Cover of 2.371 suggested a lack of buyside demand, with a notable drop from the 2.466 in December, and was the lowest since the 2.16 in August. The internals were also disappointing, with Indirects taking down just 58.1%, below the 59.4% in December, under the 61.5% six auction average, and the lowest since August. Directs also dipped, taking down 17.2% in January after 17.1% in December; this left Dealers holding 24.7% of the auction, fractionally higher than the 23.4% in December. Overall, another average, tailing auction which however was to be expected in light of the sharp pulling back in yields observed this week. Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2020 –...

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SHE CAN’T WIN: Early State Dems Prefer White Male Billionaire to Warren in New Poll

We’ll probably never know exactly what Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) told Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) during their private meeting in 2018. She says he told her a woman couldn’t win the presidency. He says otherwise. Either way, it’s becoming increasingly evident that at least one woman—Liz Warren—cannot win in 2020. A Morning Consult poll published Tuesday painted a bleak picture for Warren. Among Democratic voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, the embattled Massachusetts senator placed fourth, polling at 11 percent. Tom Steyer, one of two white male billionaires in the race, was in third place at 17 percent, presumably thanks to the massive amounts of money he has spent on advertising in those early primary states. Recent Stories in Politics Top Sanders Surrogate Appears to Parrot 9/11 Conspiracy Theory Buttigieg Hits Sanders: ‘I Don’t Measure Boldness of an Idea By … How Much Controversy It Generates’ Warren Endorses Prosecutor Who Dropped Charges Against Jussie Smollett For Fabricating Hate Crime The same poll showed Warren in a distant third among Democratic voters nationwide. Warren, at 14 percent, trailed Sanders (23 percent) and former vice president Joe Biden (29 percent). Most alarmingly, she only barely led former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg (12 percent), the other white male billionaire running in the Democratic primary. That’s not all. Warren also performed worse in a hypothetical contest against President Donald...

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Hong Kong Researchers Have Developed A Coronavirus Vaccine, There Is Just One Catch

Hong Kong Researchers Have Developed A Coronavirus Vaccine, There Is Just One Catch With scientists from around the world scrambling to be the first to market with a vaccine for the Chinese coronavirus pandemic, Hong Kong researchers said today they have already developed a vaccine for the deadly Wuhan diseases, although there is a catch: the vaccine will not be commercially available for months, if not a year, as it would “take months” to test the vaccine on animals and at least another year to conduct clinical trials on humans before it was fit for use. That’s a problem, because at the current exponential rate of propagation, the virus may have infected several billion people by then. According to SCMP, as scientists in mainland China and the United States were racing to produce a vaccine for the new coronavirus, infectious diseases expert Professor Yuen Kwok-yung, chair of infectious diseases at the University of Hong Kong, revealed that his team was working on the vaccine and had isolated the previously unknown virus from the city’s first imported case. “We have already produced the vaccine, but it will take a long time to test on animals,” Yuen said, without giving a specific time frame on when it would be ready for patients. Professor Yuen Kwok-yung did not give a time frame on when the vaccine would be ready. Photo: SCMP Meanwhile,...

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Impeachment Moves Into Q&A Phase; Here’s What To Expect

Impeachment Moves Into Q&A Phase; Here’s What To Expect With President Trump’s defense team set to wrap up their third and final day of opening arguments in his Senate impeachment trial, and a debate over witnesses raging outside the chamber, Senators are preparing to move into the next phase of the proceeding where they will spend 16 hours asking questions of both the Democratic House impeachment managers and President Trump’s defense team. And as noted by The Hill, the Q&A round will “lead to plenty of tea-leaf reading as observers scrutinize what the questions reveal about the senators considering the merits of the case.” There won’t be many limits on what can be asked, as a resolution passed last week on guidelines merely states “Upon the conclusion of the president’s presentation, senators may question the parties for a period of time not to exceed 16 hours.” That said, the questions will be filtered through party leadership, which will then send the questions to Chief Justice John Roberts, will read them. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) says that he’ll take a hands-off approach to narrowing down questions, though be may combine similar submissions. “The only thing we might try to do is make sure that the questions — if 10 people want the same question, that we ask it once, OK, in the name of the 10,” said Schumer,...

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Central Banks Have Made Markets So Fragile, Liquidity Premiums Are Now Negative

Central Banks Have Made Markets So Fragile, Liquidity Premiums Are Now Negative Back in late December, when the market was melting up every single day with zero regard for economic data or newsflow, we pointed out something ominous: the world’s most liquid stock market, the S&P500, was now as (il)liquid as it was during the 2008 financial crisis. As BofA’s Benjamin Bowler wrote, while market liquidity generally correlated with volatility, in recent years, it was progressively deteriorating despite near record low levels on the VIX. According to BofA calculations, average “illiquidity” for S&P e-mini futures since 2018 has been in its 73rd% since 2008. Historically, the period when markets were less liquid was primarily during the ’08 crisis when the VIX was north of 40. It is also noteworthy that illiquidity rose ahead of the sharp fragility events of Aug-2011, Aug-2015, and Feb-2018, while implied vol remained muted until very near the selloffs, suggesting that VIX no longer reflects prevailing market stress, and confirms what Morgan Stanley said in late 2019, namely that Fed actions now directly seek to lower marketwide volatility. Why does this matter? Because as BofA summarized one month ago, the fact that liquidity seems to be progressively deteriorating over time suggests that market fragility is getting worse, particularly as long as crowding remains a problem and liquidity providers are incentivized to pull back from liquidity...

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Hundreds Of Virus Carrying Planes Headed For US, London, Paris, Vancouver

Hundreds Of Virus Carrying Planes Headed For US, London, Paris, Vancouver Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Lockdowns are for the peasants, not those with money. What Does Halt All Traffic Mean? This morning, I Decided to Research this Question: I don’t Know Jim, good question. China statements say “tours” Other sources suggest “individuals” So … Is it Tours or Individuals? And what about those who visited China from other countries? Not covered at all IMO. https://t.co/K5QEoTFXPG — Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) January 27, 2020 Results below. Lockdown? What Lockdown? There is no lockdown in China, if you are wealthy. Check out this Beijing Flight Schedule for today. Here’s the Wuhan Flight Schedule for today. Lockdowns are for those with no money, not the wealthy. Beijing Departures 25 flights on a page 5 pages for the 00:00-06:00 departures 26 pages for 06:00-12:00 departures 22 pages for the 12:00-18:00 Beijing departures 20 pages for the 18:00-00:00 departures That’s about 1825 flights out of Beijing. Wuhan Departures Today How easy is it to escape Wuhan? You can still catch a flight from Wuhan to Anchorage, Tokyo, Seoul, Bangkok, Singapore, Taipei and countless cities in China including Beijing and Shanghai. There are 8 pages of flights out of Wuhan today. That’s about 200 flights. Most of the flights are within China, but that hardly stops containment. In the 00:00-06:00 slot one flight left for Anchorage. Another left...

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Avenatti Googled “Insider Trading” And “Nike Puts” Before Attempting To Shake Down Sneaker Giant

Avenatti Googled “Insider Trading” And “Nike Puts” Before Attempting To Shake Down Sneaker Giant No, this is not from the Onion. Somehow, before driving his firm and himself into near bankruptcy due to his insatiable lifestyle addiction, Michael Avenatti was once a respected California lawyer. A respected California lawyer who clearly had no qualms googling things like “Insider trading” and “Nike puts” before allegedly attempting to extort the world’s biggest manufacturer of athletic shoes. Even if he wasn’t arrested for the threats, the SEC would have almost certainly nailed him if he tried to trade on his own press conference. With Avenatti’s trial set to begin next week, prosecutors are arguing that the judge should admit a history of Avenatti’s google searches, which they argued offer critical insights into Avenatti’s state of mind while he was concocting the so-called extortion plot (Avenatti originally partnered with another celebrity lawyer, Mark Geragos, according to media reports. However, Geragos was never charged in the scheme). According to Bloomberg, prosecutors informed US District Judge Paul Gardephe about the emails on Monday, and are now trying to convince the judge to let the jury see the evidence. However, the judge has raised some hackles with their argument, pointing out that Avenatti is not being tried for insider-trading related charges. Despite being re-arrested two weeks ago for violating his bail terms by – what else?...

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