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Daily Briefing – July 9, 2020

Daily Briefing – July 9, 2020 Tyler Durden Thu, 07/09/2020 – 17:40 Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison hosts Real Vision’s Tyler Neville to discuss the ever-expanding chasm in markets between fundamentals and flows. Drawing upon his experience on the buy-side, Tyler analyzes how market forces such as commission free trading and the widespread adoption of passive ETFs have distorted price discovery, and he and Ed explore whether this means that the bull market mania could last longer than the bears expect. Ed is skeptical and argues that the pain on Main Street must eventually move to Wall Street as well. Ed and Tyler also explore how macro tailwinds such as demographics affect the pension system. In the intro, Peter Cooper looks at job destruction that’s currently happening in several different countries and what the long-term effects the pandemic may have on...

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“Political Prosecution!”: Trump Rages After Supreme Court Tax Ruling

“Political Prosecution!”: Trump Rages After Supreme Court Tax Ruling Tyler Durden Thu, 07/09/2020 – 17:25 Update (1042ET): Deutsche Bank says it will comply with the Supreme Court’s decision and will provide Trump’s records to NY prosecutors, according to Bloomberg. An angry Trump, meanwhile, tweeted that the Supreme Court decision is “all a political prosecution,” and that “Courts in the past have given “broad deference.” BUT NOT ME!” The Supreme Court sends case back to Lower Court, arguments to continue. This is all a political prosecution. I won the Mueller Witch Hunt, and others, and now I have to keep fighting in a politically corrupt New York. Not fair to this Presidency or Administration! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 9, 2020 Courts in the past have given “broad deference”. BUT NOT ME! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 9, 2020 Trump continued: ….No Republican Senate Judiciary response, NO “JUSTICE”, NO FBI, NO NOTHING. Major horror show REPORTS on Comey & McCabe, guilty as hell, nothing happens. Catch Obama & Biden cold, nothing. A 3 year, $45,000,000 Mueller HOAX, failed – investigated everything…. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 9, 2020 ….for another President. This is about PROSECUTORIAL MISCONDUCT. We catch the other side SPYING on my campaign, the biggest political crime and scandal in U.S. history, and NOTHING HAPPENS. But despite this, I have done more than any President...

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“In 2020, I’ve Seen Enough” – Liberty Blitzkrieg’s Mike Krieger Says “Farewell For Now”

“In 2020, I’ve Seen Enough” – Liberty Blitzkrieg’s Mike Krieger Says “Farewell For Now” Tyler Durden Thu, 07/09/2020 – 17:20 Authored by Michael Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog, Remember: Matter. How tiny your share of it. Time. How brief and fleeting your allotment of it. Fate. How small a role you play in it. – Marcus Aurelius, Meditations For the past ten years, I’ve spent most of my waking hours learning how the systems we live under function and how wealth and power operate and consolidate in the U.S. as well as globally. I’ve learned a lot and I’ve shared a lot. If I could go back and do it all over again, I would. I dedicated all that time and energy to writing and engaging on the big issues of our era for two main reasons. First, I felt there was a window of opportunity to turn the ship around and reform the system to avoid needless additional widespread suffering and upheaval, which to me was guaranteed given the destructive path to which our ruling class was obstinately committed. Second, my decade on Wall Street offered some valuable insight into the inner workings of financial feudalism and how it systematically and intentionally enriches certain small segments of the populace while enslaving the masses via perpetual colossal debt issuance coupled with reoccurring central bank bailouts for the creditor and financial asset speculator...

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Another Hate Crime Hoax: Oregon Politician Admits To Mailing Himself Racist Letter

Another Hate Crime Hoax: Oregon Politician Admits To Mailing Himself Racist Letter Tyler Durden Thu, 07/09/2020 – 17:00 An Oregon politician fessed up to sending himself a racist and homophobic letter, then claiming it was left anonymously in his mailbox on June 23, according to KOMO news. Jonathan Lopez, 29, posted a photo of the typed letter on his Facebook page, which he has since taken down. It stated in part that Mexicans like Lopez were “not welcome here,” and that “America is for the God fearing, pro gun, pro life humans who refuse to be controlled by the government.” “You and your communist liberal community can go fuck yourselves and rot in hell.” “From the onset, this alleged incident has been thoroughly investigated,” said Hermiston Police Chief Jason Edmiston. “Our investigation has shown that Mr. Lopez wrote the letter himself and made false statements to the police and on social media. The end result is a verbal and written admission by Mr. Lopez that the letter was fabricated.“ At first, Lopez tried to say it was a big misunderstanding, and that he had planned to discuss racism with Chief Edmiston – using the letter as an example of the type of racism experienced by minorities. “I never meant to file a report, it just kind of spiraled out,” he said, adding that he “never meant to mislead” the...

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Flynn Judge Defies Appeals Court, Asks For Full Review Of Order To Drop Case

Flynn Judge Defies Appeals Court, Asks For Full Review Of Order To Drop Case Tyler Durden Thu, 07/09/2020 – 16:40 The judge in Michael Flynn’s criminal case is refusing to accept the results of a federal appeals court three-judge decision ordering him to dismiss the case against the former national security adviser. Judge Emmet Sullivan has instead asked the appeals court for an ‘en banc’ review of the decision – meaning the entire panel of all active judges on the court would re-hear the case. Flynn update: Judge Sullivan refuses to give up – and asks the DC Circuit for a rehearing (en banc) on the dismissal of the Flynn case. Allegation: the DC Circuit granting of mandamus “threatens the orderly administration of justice.” Full doc:https://t.co/q1vcbGxKiA pic.twitter.com/76ahD1xqWM — Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) July 9, 2020 Interestingly, if the appeals court grants the en banc request, reversing the previous ruling would mean undermining a decision by Obama appointee, Chief Judge Srinivasan – whose ruling in United States v. Fokker Services B.V. effectively removed Sullivan’s authority to deny the DOJ’s request to dismiss Flynn’s case. Some  commentators have read Fokker as effectively wiping out Sullivan’s authority to deny the government’s request in Flynn’s case, given that opinion’s sweeping assertion that “decisions to dismiss pending criminal charges … lie squarely within the ken of prosecutorial discretion,” leaving no “substantial role for courts.” But...

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The Strangest Recession In History

The Strangest Recession In History Tyler Durden Thu, 07/09/2020 – 16:21 “Recessions don’t usually result in personal income soaring, but this one has thanks to government support around the world” Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid writes bringing attention to the following chart. However, as discussed extensively last month in “‘Look Out Below’: Why The Economy Is About To Fly Off A Fiscal Cliff“, the US soon faces a potential “benefits cliff” and this could be one of the defining events for global markets this summer. The $600 per week in Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) is set to expire at the end of July, while the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) and Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) will also expire at the end of this year. Though Wall Street economists expect Congress to pass further stimulus in late July to address these cliffs, the two parties remain far apart on the contours of the next phase of federal support. On a per capita basis, claimants have received roughly $788/week ($41k annualised) on average, well above the usual amount of roughly $300 in a normal labor environment ($15-$16k annualised). This is important because as the second chart illustrates, consumer spending for the bottom income quartile has held up relatively well up to this point. So, as Jim Reid concludes “an important few weeks ahead in DC” where the ability to keep helicopter...

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Dip-Buyers Rescue Big-Tech From Dreaded Down-Day As Bond Yields Plunge

Dip-Buyers Rescue Big-Tech From Dreaded Down-Day As Bond Yields Plunge Tyler Durden Thu, 07/09/2020 – 16:00 Another day, another dip-buying panic to rescue the Nasdaq from the terrible outcome of a down-day, instead another record high. Overnight was the standard slow and steady rally and then these events hit, taking the shine off the gains: 0935ET *U.S. READYING FEDERAL CONTRACT BAN FOR COS. USING HUAWEI: RTRS 1010ET *SUPREME COURT SAYS N.Y. GRAND JURY CAN GET TRUMP’S TAX RETURNS 1100ET ARIZONA/FLORIDA CASES/DEATHS But as soon as Europe closed, US stocks were magically bid once again, with only Nasdaq back in the green… The sellers have been sanctionedhttps://t.co/CDNXwkVtGw — zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 9, 2020 We note that Biden gave an economic speech in the last hour and appeared to spook stocks with these 1520ET *BIDEN: ENDING THE ERA OF ‘SHAREHOLDER CAPITALISM’ IS OVERDUE 1530ET *CHINA IPHONE JUNE SELL-IN DATA WEAKER THAN EXPECTED: NOMURA and then this sent stocks vertical… 1548ET *TRUMP SAYS ON TRACK TO LAUNCH VACCINE `VERY SOON’ The Dow remains rangebound between key technical levels… Is someone “meddling with the primal forces of nature…”? And bear in mind that while Nasdaq roars to record-er and record-er highs, the rest of the major US equity indices all topped a month ago… Source: Bloomberg FANG stocks soared to a new record high, reaching the most overbought since the February peak… Source:...

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Stocks Slide As Biden Vows To “End Shareholder Capitalism”, Raise Corporate Tax Rate To 28%

Stocks Slide As Biden Vows To “End Shareholder Capitalism”, Raise Corporate Tax Rate To 28% Tyler Durden Thu, 07/09/2020 – 15:38 Update (1545ET): Biden can’t get through a speech without making at least one major error. Today, it was the amount of money he was responsible for “administering” under TARP. Joe Biden AGAIN gets wrong the amount of money that was in the 2008 Recovery Act. Biden claims he oversaw $84 billion in actuality it was $800 billion. pic.twitter.com/MZtisnfAdZ — Francis Brennan (@FrancisBrennan) July 9, 2020 Meanwhile, as Biden promises to spend $700 billion on a “sweeping” economic plan that he claims. Investments in domestic technology would yield more than 5 million jobs, Biden said. But as WaPo pointed out, Biden’s message is essentially copying Trump’s rhetoric. Joe Biden unveiled a proposal Thursday to spend $700 billion on American products and research, challenging President Trump’s “America First” agenda with a competing brand of economic nationalism and setting the stage for an election-year showdown over the country’s financial future. By aping it, did Biden just tacitly acknowledge that Trump’s ‘American First’ policies and vows to defend and support American workers are central to his appeal? But we thought all Trump supporters were motivated by racist hatred? * * * Update (1520ET): The headlines are rolling in. For starters, Biden says he plans to raise “hundreds of billions of dollars” by raising...

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Supreme Court: Nearly Half Of Oklahoma Is Indian Reservation

Supreme Court: Nearly Half Of Oklahoma Is Indian Reservation Tyler Durden Thu, 07/09/2020 – 15:35 While all eyes were on the Supreme Court’s Thursday decision granting New York prosecutors access to President Trump’s taxes, a ruling earlier in the day recognized roughly half of Oklahoma as an Indian reservation – in a move which could have wide-ranging legal implications for the 1.8 million people who now live in “Indian Country,” according to the New York Times. I guess these are the new borders of Oklahoma. pic.twitter.com/yCmbICBWHY — Յովհաննէս Թաշճեան (@UnspeakablChaos) July 9, 2020 The decision, authored by Justice Neil Gorsuch, holds the United States to an 1866 treaty that the Muscogee (Creek) Nation signed with the United States after the Civil War over land which was home to the “Five Civilized Tribes”; the Creek, Cherokee Nation, the Seminole, the Chickasaw Nation, and the Choctaw Nation, according to The New Republic. “Today we are asked whether the land these treaties promised remains an Indian reservation for purposes of federal criminal law,” wrote Gorsuch, a Trump appointee. “Because Congress has not said otherwise, we hold the government to its word.” Joining Gorsuch in the majority were Justices Sonya Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, Stephen Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, while Justices Alito, Kavanaugh, Roberts and Clarence Thomas argued in the minority – siding with the state of Oklahoma. “A century of practice confirms...

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Stocks Spooked On Biden Anti-Wall Street Comments

Stocks Spooked On Biden Anti-Wall Street Comments Tyler Durden Thu, 07/09/2020 – 15:26 Joe Biden’s economic speech was going along nicely with a smorgasbord of nothingburgers and pandering… and then he started on the Wall-Street-bashing narrative and the market got a little ‘shook’… *BIDEN: WALL STREET BANKERS AND CEOS DIDN’T BUILD AMERICA *BIDEN: ENDING THE ERA OF ‘SHAREHOLDER CAPITALISM’ IS OVERDUE The reaction was notable only in so much as it stopped the incessant rise in Nasdaq (albeit probably only for minutes)… The entire market was spooked lower… Did the level of the Dow just come fully into play for the campaign? (as if it wasn’t...

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