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Month: February 2020

“Haven Of Last Resort” – Goldman Sees Gold At $1800 Due To Virus & Bernie Sanders Fears

“Haven Of Last Resort” – Goldman Sees Gold At $1800 Due To Virus & Bernie Sanders Fears Over the past two weeks gold has surged higher, in line with the decline in long-term bond yields and global equity sell-off as new cases off Covid-19 in Europe and the Middle East threaten to curtail global economic activity. Goldman Sachs suggests there is more to come for precious metals as with rates getting closer to their lower bound, gold looks increasingly like the safest haven. Mikhail Sprogis outlines three factors behind continued gains for gold (12m forecast $1800)… 1) Fear-Driven investment demand 2) Large global savings glut 3) The rise of Bernie Sanders Gold has outperformed traditional haven currencies, such as the Yen and Swiss Franc, underscoring its status as the safest haven in a world where all currencies are susceptible to a virus-related shock. 1. This surge in ‘fear-driven’ investment demand has been significantly larger than the consumer demand lost owing to any negative wealth shock to EM consumers as a result of China’s shutdown. We estimate that gold purchases fall 2.6% for every 1% hit to Chinese real GDP growth. Therefore, our Economists’ forecast of a 6% contraction in Chinese GDP in Q1 implies only a 28 tonnes loss in gold demand. Adding losses for other East-Asian countries implies a total loss of 40 tonnes. This is small relative...

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CDC Confirms First US Coronavirus Case Of ‘Unknown Origin’ As South Korea Infections Soar: Live Updates

CDC Confirms First US Coronavirus Case Of ‘Unknown Origin’ As South Korea Infections Soar: Live Updates Summary: South Korea reports 334 new cases, bringing the total number in the country to 1,595 South Korea, US postpone joint drills due to coronavirus The US State Department has issued a level 3 travel advisory urging people to reconsider going to South Korea China reports 26 new deaths and 409 additional cases in Hubei province CDC confirms first case of ‘unknown origin’ in US CDC reports 6 new cases among repatriated Americans WaPo reports Northern California has 16th US case, says it’s first of “unknown origin” and risks local spread 83 being monitored in Nassau County Orange County declares state of emergency Norway has confirmed its first case 8 quarantined in Westchester HHS confirms 15th US case Iran deaths hit 19 Brazil confirms first case in South America France confirms 2nd death Tokyo pushes back against Tokyo Games cancellation talk Greece confirms first case Germany unleashes fiscal stimulus after confirming new cases Dems one-up Trump with $8.5 billion package. Kuwait, Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain confirm new cases Finland confirms 2nd case 1st 2 cases reported in Pakistan HHS Secretary tells Congress infectious disease fund has no extra uncommitted cash Congress begins talks on corona virus spending bill with vote expected early next month Germany health minister warns we’re at beginning of epidemic in...

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Scientists Discover HIV-Like “Mutation” Which Makes Coronavirus Extremely Infectious

Scientists Discover HIV-Like “Mutation” Which Makes Coronavirus Extremely Infectious While mainstream scientists continue to perform mental gymnastics to insist that the new coronavirus wasn’t man-made, new research from scientists in China and Europe reveal that the disease happens to have an ‘HIV-like mutation’ which allows it to bind with human cells up to 1,000 times stronger than the Sars virus, according to SCMP. Recall that at the end of January, a team of Indian scientists wrote in a now-retracted, scandalous paper claiming that the coronavirus may have been genetically engineered to incorporate parts of the HIV genome, writing “This uncanny similarity of novel inserts in the 2019- nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag is unlikely to be fortuitous in nature,” meaning – it was unlikely to have occurred naturally. Fast forward to new research by a team from Nankai University, which writes that COV-19 has an ‘HIV-like mutation’ that  allows it to quickly enter the human body by binding with a receptor called ACE2 on a cell membrane. Other highly contagious viruses, including HIV and Ebola, target an enzyme called furin, which works as a protein activator in the human body. Many proteins are inactive or dormant when they are produced and have to be “cut” at specific points to activate their various functions. When looking at the genome sequence of the new coronavirus, Professor Ruan Jishou...

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U.S. Intelligence Is Intervening In The 2020 Election

U.S. Intelligence Is Intervening In The 2020 Election Authored by Jefferson Morley via, President Trump’s ongoing purge of the intelligence community, along with Bernie Sanders’ surge in the Democratic presidential race, has triggered an unprecedented intervention of U.S. intelligence agencies in the U.S. presidential election on factually dubious grounds. Former CIA director John Brennan sees a “full-blown national security crisis” in President Trump’s latest moves against the intelligence community. Brennan charges, “Trump is abetting a Russian covert operation to keep him in office for Moscow’s interests, not America’s.” But congressional representatives, both Democratic and Republican, who heard a briefing by the intelligence community about the 2020 election earlier this month say the case for Russian interference is “overstated.” On February 21, it was leaked to the Washington Post that “U.S. officials,” meaning members of the intelligence community, had confidentially briefed Sanders about alleged Russian efforts to help his 2020 presidential campaign. Special prosecutor Robert Mueller documented how the Russians intervened on Trump’s behalf in 2016, while finding no evidence of criminal conspiracy. Mueller did not investigate the Russians’ efforts on behalf of Sanders, but the Computational Propaganda Research Project at Oxford University did. In a study of social media generated by the Russia-based Internet Research Agency (IRA), the Oxford analysts found that the IRA initially generated propaganda designed to boost all rivals to Hillary Clinton in 2015. As Trump advanced, they focused almost entirely on motivating Trump...

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A Great Debate Emerges On Wall Street: Are Men Or Machines Behind The “Panic Selling”?

A Great Debate Emerges On Wall Street: Are Men Or Machines Behind The “Panic Selling”? Over the past few days, we have carefully tried to put together the pieces of the “liquidation puzzle”, to find out i) just who is selling, whether machines or people or some combination of both, and ii) is there more selling to go? Readers can catch up on some of our most recent articles on the topic below: Gamma Trapdoor Opens: Markets Brace For “Shock Down” As Dealers Puke What’s Behind Today’s Market Plunge? A Stunned Wall Street Responds Morgan Stanley: If We Close Below 3,235, Systematic Selling Will Become “Self-Fulfilling” The $60 Billion Puke: Here Comes The Systematic Selling… And Watch The Russell 2000 CTAs Begin Selling Nomura: Investors Are Finally Considering A “Previously Unthinkable Scenario” And while, as often happens with such opaque market positioning and flow topics, no clear answer has emerged, with contradictory and confusing evidence pointing to the recent sharp drop in dealer gamma, the triggering of CTA deleveraging, the unwind of record net long SPX speculative positions, forced selling by quant/systematic (vol targeting, risk parity) funds as well as liquidations by discretionary hedge funds operated by carbon-based traders. What has emerged is yet another great Wall Street debate, with some, such as JPMorgan, claiming the selling was mostly systematic (i.e., algos and model quants), while others such as...

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