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Crude Crashes Over 10% After OPEC+ Meeting Delays

Crude Crashes Over 10% After OPEC+ Meeting Delays Crude prices are plunging early in Asian trading with Brent down 12% following a delay to the much-hoped-for OPEC+ meeting (due tomorrow, Monday, but now pushed off until Thursday).   As Ransquawk details, an OPEC+ call that was scheduled for Monday has been delayed until Thursday, amid an intensifying dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia over who is to blame for falling crude prices. Participants are to discuss the demand hit to crude from COVID-19. Analysts do not seem to be convinced that the group will make sufficient progress; the Saudis and Russia have called for other global producers – namely US, Canada and Mexico – to share the burden of cuts, while Norway has also said it would consider cutting production in any coordinated global effort. LEVEL OF CUTS: Ahead of the now notorious March OPEC meeting, there was a recommendation to cut an additional 1.5mln BPD from April 2020 through the end of 2020, with a review in June. The deal was conditional on support from OPEC+, and OPEC said any deal could only be applied on a pro-rata basis, and proposed core members cut by 1mln BPD, and non-OPEC by 500k. Ahead of Thursday’s meeting, a figure of 10mln BPD cut to output has been floated (around 10% of global supply), although following a call with Saudi Arabia,...

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The Jackpot Chronicles Scenario 1: Force Majeure

The Jackpot Chronicles Scenario 1: Force Majeure Authored by Mark Jeftovic via, This is the second instalment of The Jackpot Chronicles: Four Possible Post-Coronavirus Scenarios. Force Majeure means: a chance occurrence or superior force that renders a contract unenforceable and frees all parties from their obligations under it. We are frequently told that there exists some manner of “Social Contract” to which we are implicitly bound by virtue of being alive. This implied Social Contract confers legitimacy upon the institutions that order our world, the national governments, the central banks, the miltary and police. And by extension certain communication outlets and media are endowed with a status of official curators over the narratives around institutional power. Under the Force Majeure Scenario, the first of four possible Coronavirus aftermaths posited in “Welcome to the Jackpot”, the overwhelming or superior force is not the pandemic itself, but rather the collapse of the debt supercycle, the monetary system that derives from it, and the structure of nation states that are burgeoned by it. The last time we were here, when a systemic crisis has shaken the foundation of the social order, the policy response was favourable to one party of the social contract at the expense of the others. The GFC, which I now call GFC 1.0 or GFC ‘08, saw the financialized class, those closest to the monetary spigots of the...

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When Will The Coronavirus Lockdowns Be Lifted? Here Are One Bank’s Estimates

When Will The Coronavirus Lockdowns Be Lifted? Here Are One Bank’s Estimates With most of the developed world on lockdown, and markets and economies paralyzed until there is a material decline in new coronavirus cases, i.e., until we slide “over the hump” of the coronavirus curve, the biggest question – and variable – in assessing the economic damage unleashed by the covid-19 virus is the length of the lockdowns now in force, with Deutsche Bank’s Luke Templeman pointing out that “politicians and health officials have discussed dates ranging anywhere from weeks to over a year.” In an attempt to answer this most important for capital markets question, namely when will the civic and economic restrictions begin to be lifted in various key countries, Deutsche Bank provides some estimates largely based on the experience of the lockdown and reopening in China’s Hubei province. Using the “Chinese” experience as indicative of what other countries can achieve, recent studies have confirmed that after implementing various suppression measures, several large countries “appear to be converging onto the decline in the daily growth rate of deaths” seen in China. An Imperial College study in particular pointed out that the overall number of deaths in other countries could be between two and eight times the number of deaths as in China. As DB notes, one way to look at how other countries are converging on...

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Bronx Zoo Tiger Tests Positive For COVID-19

Bronx Zoo Tiger Tests Positive For COVID-19 Last month, Dr. Fauci insisted at a White House task force press briefing that there was no evidence that pets were vulnerable to the novel coronavirus. Then scientists in Belgium and Hong Kong confirmed that they had found pet cats owned by people infected with the virus that had somehow caught it, as evidence was detected in their urine. At least pet dog has also been infected. As CNN so aptly points out, the “weak positives” produced in tests of these animals haven’t offered any reason for scientists to suspect that these animals could infect humans – only that these pets could be infected by humans, as humans were once, in turn, infected by animals. No article that we’ve seen in the mainstream US press has offered a detailed explanation for the scientific community’s reasoning in thinking that these tests suggest that pets can’t infect humans. But while CNN and others have reveled in mocking alarmists who believed in this Internet ‘conspiracy theory’, they neglected to explain that there are two critical reasons for this: the first being that dogs and cats infected in past coronavirus outbreaks (namely, the SARS outbreak in 2002-2003) have shown that the strains they typically pick up don’t cause respiratory problems. Have we confirmed the same is true for the novel coronavirus? No. The second is that...

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The OPEC+ Meeting Could Send Oil Prices Crashing Below $10

The OPEC+ Meeting Could Send Oil Prices Crashing Below $10 Authored by Cyril Widdershoven via, The current optimism of analysts and the media that an end to the ongoing OPEC+ oil price spat is near is entirely unjustified. The ongoing oil market volatility, the battle between leading producers for market share, the logistical impossibility of enforcing U.S. production cuts, and the continued demand destruction caused by COVID-19 are not issues that can be solved by an OPEC meeting. Immediately after Trump’s latest OPEC twitter offensive, Saudi Arabia and Russia came out with critical statements about the impact and influence of the US president on the matter. While Putin and Mohammed bin Salman are reluctant to bash Trump, the real power when it comes to the oil market does not lie with the U.S. President. The tweet by Trump claiming that MBS and Putin would agree to a 10+ million bpd production cut shows not only his overestimation of his own power over the two countries, but also shows a lack of knowledge about the underlying market fundamentals and the current demand destruction worldwide.  As former US president George W. Bush stated during his election campaign, which did not end well as we know, “it’s the economy stupid” that matters in the end. Trump’s tweets and general approach to this matter suggests he and his administration are out of touch with reality....

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